Predictions for the 95th Academy Awards

(I say it's the 2022 Oscars, even if the show takes place in 2023)

At this time in a week, the Oscars will begin handing out their awards — and all on the live broadcast, thank goodness!

© The Academy Awards / ABC

I can only hope that this year, the main takeaway from the ceremony will actually be the movies themselves. And that’s because, in large part, this year’s crop of nominees is exciting and energizing! It’s a good mix of high art and popcorn commerce, striking a pretty strong middle ground between the competing visions of what the Oscars should be.

It seems like my prediction from late November is almost assured to come to fruition…

Marshall Shaffer @media_marshall

Look, only a fool is going to prognosticate off the sample size of the Gothams, but ... if I were putting money on a movie to win Best Picture before the major awards bodies announce, it would be EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. Sweet spot between indie cred and commercial hit.

The Gotham Film & Media Institute @weare_thegotham

Best Feature Winner: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE #GothamAwards2022 https://t.co/124H0rjHc2

…but what about the rest of the ballot? The acting races are surprisingly fluid, with two coin-flips and one genuine toss-up. The crafts have a few sure things, but will one film come to dominate below the line? Or will an EEAAO wave sweep across the board? WHAT ABOUT THE SHORTS CATEGORIES THAT MAKE OR BREAK A BALLOT?!?

As a treat for subscribers, I’m giving you a look at where my Oscars ballot stands today. If you’re playing in a pool at your party or with friends/colleagues, I hope this is helpful! (And if you’re just a free reader for now, you can use a 7-day free trial to peek behind the paywall — I hope you’ll consider staying for more!)